Financial Analysis Fundamentals
cisuhei Thurles, Co. Tipperary
Financial Analysis Beginner to Intermediate 8 min read

Cash Flow Forecasting for Small Business: A 13-Week Model

A structured resource from cisuhei covering financial analysis fundamentals — built for clarity and practical application.

Duration

5 weeks

Level

Beginner to Intermediate

Category

Financial Analysis

Investment

€179

About this resource

Profit does not pay salaries on Friday — cash does. This project is built around that gap, using a fictional but realistic Irish SME to construct a 13-week rolling cash flow model.

The scenario

The business is a 12-person service firm with 3 main clients, a mix of 30-day and 60-day payment terms, monthly payroll of €38,000, and a VAT return due in week 9. These specifics matter because they create the timing mismatches that make cash flow forecasting genuinely difficult.

The model is built week by week, not imported as a finished template. Each input is explained before it is entered, so the logic is visible rather than hidden inside a pre-built formula.

Sensitivity and scenario testing

Once the base model is complete, 2 stress scenarios are applied: a key client delaying payment by 3 weeks, and a VAT bill 18% higher than forecast. You will see how quickly a comfortable cash position can tighten — and what levers are available to respond.

The goal is a model you can adapt, not one that only works for this specific scenario. The structure transfers to most service-based businesses with minor adjustments.

What is not covered

This project focuses on short-term operational cash flow. It does not address capital expenditure planning, long-term financing decisions, or consolidated group cash management.

Program structure

  1. Understanding the difference between profit and cash — where timing gaps appear
  2. Mapping cash inflows — client payments, payment terms, collection assumptions
  3. Mapping cash outflows — payroll, rent, suppliers, tax obligations
  4. Building the 13-week rolling model in a spreadsheet
  5. Adding scenario toggles — delayed payments and unexpected costs
  6. Interpreting the output — when to act and what actions are available
  7. Adapting the model structure for a different business type
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